NASA - National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Forecast Based on

• satellite
• current surface observations
• 00 UTC ETA
• 00 UTC NGM
• 09 UTC MAPS/RUC
• MRF
• 12z ECWMF

Synopsis

The upper level flow is split at 140W. The southern branch of the jet is zonal and extends
from 140W to the Mississippi Valley. A surface low has formed in the four corners area with
a shortwave analyzed over it. The satellite picture is showing cirrus and mid-level clouds
from AZ to eastern NM. Presently, the skies are clear over Salina and the CART site.

Prog Discussion

The broad upper level flow pattern is going to change in the next 48 hours as a ridge builds
in at 122W and a trough sharpens at 102W. The shortwave over AZ will travel through the
bottom of the flat 500 mb trough and track to the northeast by 00Z Sun 21. Upstream, a
rigorous Pacific Northwest shortwave will deepen the 500mb trough as it traverses and exits
the Rockies. A surface low will form in western KN and will move northeastward across the
state from 12Z-00Z Sun 21/Mon 22. Precipitation, low, and mid level clouds are associated
with this system. A surface front extending from southeastern OK back across TX could lead
to convection over this region.

48 hour Forecast:

12z 20 Apr - 00Z 21 Apr: High level clouds are expected over southern KS and OK. Temperatures
in the 70s. Wind 10 kt out of the south.

00Z 21 Apr - 12Z 21 Apr: Low level clouds increasing through the night. Low in the upper
40s. Wind becoming southeast at 10-15 kts.

12z 21 Apr - 12Z 22 Apr: Rain likely in northwestern and north central KS. High around 70.
Winds westerly turning to the northwest by the afternoon. Could be gusty after the front
passes. Sunday night: cooler and mostly cloudy. Temperatures in low to mid 40s.

Extended Range Discussion:

12z 22 Apr - 12Z 23 Apr: Continued cool and cloudy.

Walker and Mace