NASA - National Aeronautics and Space Administration

We apply the Goddard Institute for Space Studies composition-climate model to an assessment of tropospheric O3, CH4, and sulfate at 2030. We compare four different anthropogenic emissions forecasts: A1B and B1 from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios and Current Legislation (CLE) and Maximum Feasible Reduction (MFR) from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. The projections encompass a wide range of possible man-made emissions changes. The A1B, B1, and CLE forecasts all suggest large increases in surface O3 and sulfate baseline pollution at tropical and subtropical latitudes, especially over the Indian subcontinent, where the pollution increases may be as large as 100%. The ranges of annual mean regional ground level O3 and sulfate changes across all scenarios are -10 to +30 ppbv and -1200 to +3000 pptv, respectively. Physical climate changes reduce future surface O3, but tend to increase ground level sulfate locally over North Africa because of an enhancement of aqueous-phase SO2 oxidation. For all examined future scenarios the combined sum of the CH4, O3, and sulfate radiative forcings is positive, even for the MFR scenario, because of the large reduction in sulfate. For A1B the forcings are as much as half of that of the preindustrial to present-day forcing for each species. For MFR the sign of the forcing for each species is reversed with respect to the other scenarios. At 2030, global changes in climate-sensitive natural emissions of CH4 from wetlands, NOx from lightning, and dimethyl sulfide from the ocean appear to be small (<5%).