NASA - National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Forecasts of high-impact weather conditions using convection-allowing numerical weather prediction models have been found to be highly sensitive to the selection of cloud microphysics scheme used within the system. The Warn-on-Forecast (WoF) project has developed a rapid-cycling, convection-allowing, data assimilation and forecasting system known as the NSSL Experimental WoF System for ensembles (NEWS-e), which is designed to utilize advanced cloud microphysics schemes. NEWS-e currently (2017–18) uses the double-moment NSSL variable density scheme (NVD), which has been shown to generate realistic representations of convective precipitation within the system. However, very little verification on nonprecipitating cloud features has been performed with this system. During the 2017 Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) experiment, an overestimation of the areal coverage of convectively generated cirrus clouds was observed. Changing the cloud microphysics scheme to Thompson generated more accurate cloud fields. This research undertook the task of improving the cloud analysis generated by NVD while maintaining its skill for other variables such as reflectivity. Adjustments to cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), fall speed, and collection efficiencies were made and tested over a set of six severe weather cases occurring during May 2017. This research uses an object-based verification approach in which objects of cold infrared brightness temperatures, high cloud-top pressures, and cloud water path are generated from model output and compared against GOES-13 observations. Results show that the modified NVD scheme generated much more skillful forecasts of cloud objects than the original formulation without having a negative impact on the skill of simulated composite reflectivity forecasts.